Current Economic Situation and Solar

I’ve been asked a few times what the current economic situation mean to the solar industry.  (It’s amusing that people would think would I know.)  My stock answer was that it’ll probably hurt the more marginal propositions, and slow down uptake in areas where there aren’t programs to support solar.  The article linked above provides a decent analysis and some of the broad strokes.  There will be more pressure from investors to have your ducks in a row and really demonstrate profitability, and home owners might delay upgrades because getting loans becomes harder.

But demand and prices for electricity are going up, resistance to nuclear, coal and natural gas plants are holding, the consequences of carbon are becoming more apparent, consumer demand for clean energy is growing and there is an ongoing boom in innovation in the industry supported by a continuing flow of investment.  So…  I think the solar industry will weather the current economic crisis.

A couple of points to consider.  A summary of some recent deals and funding in solar by Cleantech.com, a good summary of the impact of the ITC passing, even without the US, solar is booming elsewhere, Spain for example.

Put another way, we’ve recieved dozens of meeting requests from people attending the Solar Power International 2008 conference, and we’re a start up still in the prototype phase of product development.  We have allot of interesting things to talk about, but I can’t even imagine what it must be like for people with a product already available on the market.  I said that 2009 will be remembered as the year of solar, and I stand by it.  Good time to be entering the industry.

Good News Everybody

The Renewable Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC for short) has passed, and better, it’s been renewed until 2016, and they increased the caps on how much you can claim for the credit.  This is great news, but especially for solar energy as dozens of very large products were waiting to see if that went through or not.  It also looks like some of the wish list items got through including raising claimable amounts for individuals, making the extension 8 years instead of 8 one year extensions, and allowing for some retroactive credits for facilities already already producing power.  We’ll have to wait and see for all the details, but this is good no matter how you slice it, and this will drive up demand for solar energy drastically.

Mark my words, 2009 will be remembered as the Renewable Energy Year in the US.  If you weren’t sure if you were going to just into the market before, now is definitely the time.

Green Wombat has a good short summary, and there’s a little more detail in this article.

I’d be celebrating if I weren’t so busy.

The Importance of the ITC

Solar Politics

The Investment Tax Credit is the major US Federal incentive for Solar Energy in the US. The most basic description of it would be that it’s a 30% tax credit on the installation of a Solar Power system. The credit is worth up to $2000 for individuals, and with no cap for businesses provided they have sufficient tax liability. It’s currently valid through to the end of 2008, and is up for renewal right now.

But, it’s completely bogged down in partisan politics and it’s starting to look like it’s not going to go through (article dated Sunday, July 20, 2008). Basically, the Republicans want to kill it more than the Democrats want to save it. While at Intersolar 2008, almost every speaker raised the importance of the ITC to the US Solar Energy Industry. The general consensus was that without it, solar would grow in the US but slower, and with European and other non-American Solar Energy companies pulling further ahead of their American competitors.

Here are some articles and analysis that summarize different view points rather well:

• No Tax Credit, No Solar Power – A the title is alarmist, the article is specifically about two Abengoa projects that could be halted without the ITC. Good analysis though and worth reading.
• More Solar Energy Coming to California, Some Contingent on ITC
• Extension of US solar investment tax credit emerges as key issue at Intersolar/Semicon West – Summary of Intersolar panelist’s comments on the ITC.

Finally, a quote from Dr. Fred Morse, senior adviser of U.S. operations for Abengoa Solar, from this Greentech Media Q&A.

Q: Many companies expect a one-year extension to pass before the renewable-energy tax credit expires at the end of the year. Will that be enough to keep CSP moving forward?
A: A one-year extension is of zero value. It takes about four to six years to get a CSP plant sited, permitted, built and up and running. The [investment tax credit] only applies when the plant comes online. And, if you want to finance the plant today, the banks … won’t finance the project unless the [credit] will be there when it’s needed.

So what does all of this mean for the solar energy industry in general? Well, it looks bad, but the reality is that it’s “less good”. Basically, even without the ITC, analysts predict a record year for Solar in California and the rest of the US, if it passes with the 8 year extention that Democrats want, then it will be a banner year. Or put another way, it weeds out the mediocre projects and the mediocre companies. Solar investment will still be in the Billions this year and more solar farms will be built this year than last year.

Signs of a booming industry example:

• Q1 2008 Solar Investment is already 30% over Q1 2007 – Source Cleantech.com
• States are moving in to fill the funding gap, especially California and parts of New England
• Electricity is expected to double in price in the next five years while Solar energy prices continue to drop.

Not to say that the Solar Tax Credit isn’t essential for many US companies and many solar projects, but the industry in general is doing great.

More details available from the Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA Solar Tax Credit pdf file) and if you’re trying to do research and want as thorough a description as possible, check the Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency’s (DSIRE) Federal Incentives Page.